‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As military actions on Iran impede energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, availability of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a official of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the south. People are turning to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their fuel reserves have dwindled with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the government states there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and authorities say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being allocated for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been sparked by misinformation. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.