Daily Killings in the nation Fall Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The average figure of daily killings each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent government data. However, security analysts have advised that homicide data might not indicate enhanced national security.

Significant Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded over these past months is very important,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest amount of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly military operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President stated: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts urged caution that using murder statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is especially true considering the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it could hide days when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But in spite of these actions, Mexico remains beset by high bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s very questionable,” the analyst concluded.