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Australia captain Pat Cummins has admitted that his participation in the opening Ashes Test appears unlikely due to persistent injury concerns.

Media speculation from Australia had suggested that Cummins might miss the whole series, though the pace bowler himself has now provided a more detailed update on his condition.

Recovery Process

The 32-year-old has been battling with a back stress injury that has kept him sidelined since his last professional game in July.

Although Cummins has restarted running exercises, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his rehabilitation program.

"I wouldn't put a percentage on it, but I'd say probably less likely than likely," stated Cummins. "My bowling preparation begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from wearing the spikes and bowling out on turf."

Bowling Preparation

Australia coach Andrew McDonald had previously indicated that Cummins would need a minimum of four weeks of bowling preparation to have any chance of playing in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.

Cummins supported this assessment, clarifying: "You'd want at least approximately a month in the nets. If you play a Test match, you want to make certain you're able to bowl 20 overs in a day without concern."

Team Consequences

Given the compressed timeframe, there are also concerns about Cummins' availability for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unavailable, former skipper Steve Smith is likely to lead the side, with Scott Boland potentially filling the gap in the pace department.

Australia have retained the Ashes urn since 2018, while The visitors are without a Test victory in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current fitness issues echo challenges from earlier in his successful career. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the youngest-ever player to take a five-for in an innings at that time.

However, his impressive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins experienced six years before his next match due to multiple stress fractures in his lower back.

Career Achievements

When fit, Cummins has proven himself as one of cricket's elite fast bowlers. The experienced campaigner has taken 309 Test wickets at an impressive average of 22.10.

His record in home conditions is even more formidable, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has claimed 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the latest Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and confirming his importance to the Australian side.

As skipper, Cummins enjoyed a successful 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's triumphant World Test Championship final and excelling in their 50-over World Cup final win against India.

He remains the only captain in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Squad Situation

England also face their own injury concerns with captain Ben Stokes, who has been affected by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be monitoring their key players closely as the much-anticipated Ashes series approaches.