Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.